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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving together. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still